By Steve Roulstone
Once again I have cause to comment on the way that news concerning property is reported in a negative manner. During December according to most organisations reporting on prices, we saw an increase of the average price. In fact Nationwide reported that during 2010 prices increased at the same rate of 0.4% overall. Guess what was reported as a forecast for 2010 a year ago?
BBC looking for bad news
The commentator in this report states that forecasts for 2010 were between a slight increase and a decrease of up to 20% The guest from the RICS states that they forecast a slight increase and the commentator goes on to ask what changes would signal a decrease. Well Mr Leaf, well done you got it right and yet again the BBC reporter shows just how much they love taking a negative view of housing!
Now for 2011
What changes can we see for 2011 then, well it looks as if we will not see any! Even when figures confirm the slight increase, the BBC still manages to find a negative slant on the news and even more depressingly, a report from my own professional body, stated the same increase and then within the article commented that some (unconfirmed) bodies are forecasting a decrease of up to 20% next year, but goes on at the end of the article to confirm who is saying what and the maximum forecast is only shown as -5%!
Past performance
Is really what we need to look at here and if we consider the two reports mentioned above, then it seems that forecasting poor performance attracts the eyes of those who want bad news. The BBC 2010 forecast report stated figures between increases of a few % through to a decrease of up to 20%. Well and overall increase of .4% is so far from a 20% drop, this indicates that from this year’s forecasts (confirmed sources) in the NFOPP Newsletter article that we are liable to achieve a small decline at worst as the market continues to settle
Factors that affect the result
We are all aware that there are several factors that will affect this result, how the Nationalised Banks will perform now that the Government have removed mortgage targets. But what we do not know is how the Building Societies will react now that the market is again a level playing field. Or indeed whether the need for Rental property will provide a lift as Landlords seek to supply property and market forces in the rental market take effect.
In conclusion
The statement about ‘forecasting being for fools’ is I feel the main point about house prices and that market forces will determine what happens over year to come, so let’s stop making bad news out of forecasts which are so wide of the mark. Negative comments ONLY have a negative effect. I for one will continue to comment on what happens and when asked for my opinion, will give it with honest confidence, not negative guesswork!
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