By Steve Roulstone
So we arrive at the time when we start to think of the spring, when Tesco sell more fabric conditioner than any other time of the year, when we all confirm our first sighting of a spring lamb and when the property market looks towards an increase in business as people look to make that move after the winter (said with the full knowledge that next week we are getting winter weather again, at least temperature wise!)
Normal Pattern.
It is normally the case that the spring is a busy market for the rental market and while we have seen more activity since the last cold snap, the question that remains unanswered and will go a long way to proving if confidence in the economy is rising again, is will we see the expected rise in activity or not. Apart from a return to normal temperatures next week, if we do get another bout of winter weather, it will definitely slow movement down, because after viewing property in the dark, nobody wants to spend a day looking at houses with snow on the ground!
Job confidence.
No weather aside, it is the job market which will provide the ammunition as apart from natural movement around Landlords selling or wanting to choose bigger or smaller accommodation, it is people moving with work, which in the main is new posts being filled, that feeds the market and provides a base for any busy period. So the link between a good market, sales or lettings, is clearly linked to confidence in the economy overall.
Nobody knows.
The problem at the moment is nobody knows and whilst we have just gone through a quieter winter than normal, London, which is usually the barometer that the rest of the country follows, has maintained its movement and after a slow period, we usually get a natural climb purely because people catch up on the move they were going to make, but waited to see how matters panned out? (Mainly financial of course) So all the signs are there and not just in trends:
Mortgage matters.
There has also been a rise in all matters surrounding the Mortgage market, with increases in numbers and availability of specialist mortgages, as the ‘Buy to Let’ market is also showing signs of increasing again, which adds fuel to the fire that house prices have stopped declining. In fact stories centred on the mortgage market abound at present and I wonder how many are reporter led and how many are industry fed?
Budget.
And of course with an impending budget and whatever impact the markets take on the content, will undoubtedly play a major part of any increase in activity. For me, it is not so much what is stated, unless the chancellor has some hidden move to stimulate housing, because nowadays most of the changes are heralded well in advance, it is how the financial report on the current state of play of United Kingdom PLC is received that will have the major effect.
Forecast.
Well this is something that I do not normally do, but for what it is worth, I think that we will see slow movement until after the Budget and depending upon those figures and any adjustments made by the chancellor to reflect the performance, it will be after the budget before we see any major change (a kind of Housing Equinox if you will) and this will reflect just how confident the markets are in that performance and the chancellors views going forward, so I am afraid I am sitting on the fence, good confidence, good growth, poor confidence and we will see a steady market for probably the next six months.
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